On this article, we’d like to present two possible ways a Premier League combination bet strategy could work in practice. The only two options that make sense in our opinion are:
- A combination betting strategy based on a sum of meticulous analyses
- The lottery principle applied to the Premier League
Let’s take a closer look at the two strategies.
Premier League combination betting strategy at non GamStop bookmakers #1: the sum of meticulous analyses
Before placing a bet at non GamStop sports betting sites for UK bettors, it’s always important to conduct sound mathematical calculations. As a rule of thumb, the principle of value betting should always be your top priority. If a bet doesn’t yield a positive expected value as a single bet, it certainly won’t have any value in a combination bet. While the probability of winning is multiplied by the odds of the other bets, the multiplication of three probabilities of occurrence will also result in an even lower probability. Assuming you have a 33% chance for all options in three bets in a 3-way system, the calculation would be as follows:
0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33 = 0.036
This means that the chance that a combination bet consisting of three picks, each with an individual probability of 33%, ultimately pays off is just 3.6%. This would mean that a positive expected value would only be present if the total odds were 34.00 or higher. But if we do the math, things get doubly tricky.
Let’s assume all three picks have odds of 3.10. This would mean a positive expected value in all three cases with a probability of 33%. While it’s a small one, it’s still a value bet. If this calculation isn’t clear to you, you should definitely reread the article, where we explain exactly how to calculate value bets and convert betting odds into probabilities. But if we now multiply the three odds of 3.10 each, we get the following result:
3.10 x 3.10 x 3.10 = 29.79
This means that with three individual bets at non GamStop bookmakers, each of which is just barely in the positive range, there is no longer a positive expected value for exactly the same tips with exactly the same underlying probabilities. While these are ultimately decimal places, this level of precision is important when working with numbers—be they fictitious numbers like these probabilities or real ones like your money, which is ultimately what’s at stake here.
For the combination betting strategy to work, you need three things.
- 1) Tips that can be classified as value bets to a large extent; which have a particularly strong positive expected value and are not just in the black
- 2) A cool head to be able to carry out these calculations purely rationally
- 3) A keen mind so as not to overload appearances in the end
The third point in particular is incredibly important. Many tipsters believe that if they have three, four, five, or even more tips, one more tip won’t make a difference. They often add a particularly one-sided match from another league. Occasionally, even from a league they don’t even know. However, the home team in the third Ukrainian division is quoted at 1.10, while the away team, which they can’t even pronounce, is priced at 9.50. “That must be right,” inexperienced tipsters think and enter tip 1. Sure, 1.10 on its own hardly means a win. But assuming your odds have already reached 29.79, an additional 1.10 would boost the total odds to 32.77. With a stake of ten euros for the accumulator bet, that’s another potential seven euros in additional winnings! For a tip where practically nothing can go wrong, right?
Exactly. That’s precisely the big pitfall, which is why most bookies are so willing to give you bonuses for additional tips. Namely, because they want to lure you into an even bigger accumulator bet. Especially in football, a probability of more than 80% can only be achieved in the rarest of cases if we stick with the classic 3-way system. Why? Because no team in all of Europe, even in the most dominant seasons ever, has achieved this value at the end of the season.
Premier League combination betting strategy at non GamStop bookmakers #2: the lottery principle
The second Premier League combination betting strategy at non GamStop bookmakers, which we would like to introduce to you at the end, is completely different. It is based on the lottery principle, where you can ignore practically all the betting rules, or rather, reduce yourself to a single rule: invest a maximum of one euro for this combination bet. Even among professional sports bettors, there are numerous players who practice this variant independently of their otherwise serious gaming. Almost as a side job. More or less as a game of chance. Because although all tips here have to be well considered, so many factors come into play in football that it simply remains unmanageable when you look at a sum of games. Remember that serious gaming also requires the knowledge that you cannot win every ticket. The trick is to play in such a way that the winnings outweigh the losses.
With the Premier League combination betting strategy based on the lottery principle, you’re putting all your eggs in one basket. You select all nine matches for the upcoming matchday and choose the best possible bet for each match. Whether that’s the specific result in the classic 3-way system, an “over/under” bet, a “BTTS” bet (= both teams to score), a double chance bet, a draw-no-bet bet that excludes a draw, or a handicap bet. At the end, you log all nine bets as a combination bet and place exactly one euro. Experience shows that the total odds should be anywhere from 150.00 (for predominantly favorite picks or picks with correspondingly high probabilities) to the high four-digit range (up to approximately 4,000.00 for three or four underdog picks with correspondingly high odds).
For more sports updates, make sure to follow us on:
